ALL ABOUT THE ECONOMY? A lot of the discussion of the last months and weeks has been about what this US election was all about. The economy? Covid? More? Trumps’s campaign argued 4 more MAGA years, with no specific plans on what that would mean. Biden argued Build Back Better, with many more detailed plans. For the American people, speaking with my marketing hat on, the 2020 choice was probably one of the most difficult ones of the last decades. Instead of a clean brand choice like in 2016, between an incumbent (Clinton) and a challenger (Trump), this time Trump/Pence was the incumbent (but with continued challenger DNA), and Biden/Harris was the surprising challenger (with incumbent DNA, yet rejuvenated). Covid made the communication of the choice for either ticket even tougher, despite the record amounts of money raised on both sides to convince the 2 key constituents: their loyal national base, and the all important swing voter in battleground swing states.

Unseating incumbents is always tough to accomplish, in any field. When it happens, as in 2016, it is usually because of complacency or arrogance. This time, both campaigns were warned about each other. In the KU Leuven VRG/Ekonomika panel on Election Day, we argued whether this election was, as always, in the first place about the economy. For a large majority, that is what always matters most. According to a September 2020 Gallup poll, and despite the pandemic, 56% of Americans felt they were actually better off under Trump than 4 years ago. Trump had de facto accelerated an already booming second 4 years of Obama. Economists will argue correctly Trump de facto boosted the economy short term with a very costly tax plan and with America First protectionism. But in this election, in mathematical terms, the economy was the necessary condition to win, not the sufficient one. This was, as the Biden campaign successfully argued, about more than the economy, stupid. It was about the Soul of American Democracy.

The American people have now spoken. Governing will likely remain messy because of the inherent American complexity: a possibly divided Congress (pending on the 2 remaining Georgia senate races), and many divided houses on state level. There is plenty of room for interpretation on what is now really possible. The world will keep following the ongoing discussion with interest, but the point for Belgium is this: whatever hand the American electorate and its idiosyncratic election system will finally deal us, we should play that hand pragmatically and calmly.

AMERICA WILL NEVER BE BELGIUM Belgium should deal with the short term, and keep an eye on the long term. We do this for every other major country we deal with around the world, so why not with the US? I don’t mean this to be a recommendation for cynical Realpolitik, but in a way we need to know our relative place and check any feelings of self-righteousness. If you don’t like the US, or don’t like its leadership and its choices because it doesn’t match your values, then don’t do business there, don’t travel there, don’t watch Netflix, or try to have a professional dialogue for change with them.

Belgium does not choose the US President, even if listening to the media it sometimes sounds like we should have the right to. To Americans, Belgium’s convoluted electoral system and questionable governance history (covid?) can hardly be presented as a role model to emulate. Living and working in the US never was, and never will be like visiting Disney World either. Living and working in NYC is not the same as having a great time for a week in NYC. It is a hard fight every day, and it will remain so under Biden/Harris. America will never be Belgium. Many of the values you grew up with will be tested. However, if you have an open mind, and embrace the US in all of its diversity, the risk/reward equation is there too.

INCREDIBLE OPPORTUNITIES For Belgians, the US remains an incredible first call of opportunity to leverage in the geopolitical landscape, closer than Asia will ever be for many reasons. Allow me to extend the card playing analogy. Belgians believe they are expert card players. The Belgian company Cartamundi is the global leader in card games (and more). As it happens, end last year Cartamundi acquired USPCC, the United States Playing Card Company. Its core brand is one with a deep tradition and history Belgians would actually love: Bicycle. It is an American icon you can find in many households, dating back to 1885, between Budweiser (1876), and Coca-Cola (1885). The Cartamundi move was made with an eye not only on the long-term value of the US market itself, but as a game changing leverage for the position of Cartamundi in the world. Just as AB InBev, Lotus/Biscoff, UCB, Bekaert, Solvay, Sonaca, and others did, and will keep doing. Just as scale ups like Collibra, Showpad, Odoo, and many others did, and will keep doing.

Let’s show we can play multiple rounds, and win the long game even if you occasionally lose a couple of rounds. Strategy “trumps” luck over time (pun intended). America always embraced the people with a pioneering frontier spirit. America Always Wanted You, and Still Wants You, more than ever.

Welcome (back)!

Chris Burggraeve

Former President - BelCham

Former CMO AB InBev